Losing $20

I lost $20 today. It was one of those bets that if everyone is being sensible I should have won. In this case it was last year and I rashly bet that Rudolph Giuliani would finish in the final 2 in the Republican primaries for President of the US. Actually it was a safe bet had the dufus not insisted on leaving his campaigning till Florida. Never trust anyone called Rudy.

Now it looks like the top finisher on the Republican side will be McCain, with Mitt Romney or possibly Huckabee next and Rudy Dufus pulling out.

Meanwhile the Democrats have a very interesting race. I don't think Hillary Clinton is electable. She's supposed to overhaul everyone on Super Tuesday but Mad Bill has probably ensured an Obama victory. Bill behaved like a lunatic in South Carolina trying to turn the contest into a race issue, well so the journos say. Actually I prefer Obama and I think he has a better chance than Hillary C. She should drop the Linton and go Hillary C - makes her sound like a spice girl. And I think dropping references to Bill will help her campaign. She can be Hillary he can be Clinton.

Obama hasn't got the Bill and Hillary baggage and he is almost a Gen X. He's still a boomer but a late boomer (ho ho).
The problem is as a kiwi I have this compulsion to back the underdog and given Hillary C (see it works) and Obama are both frontrunners, I've found myself supporting John Edwards. Hasn't a hope, but if he'd been 10 years older he would have probably beaten Dukakis or one of the other Dem losers and stood for Pres against Bush Sen or W Bush Jun.

What interests me is that American voters want change so are supporting the 'change' candidates (Obama, Clinton, McCain). At some point after Super Tuesday - probably mid year - they're going to suddenly realise no matter what happens they're going to get change as GWB is out. And of course the final 2 candidates - McCain and Hillary C or Obama -will be change. At that point they're gonna get worried about lack of experience and vote for the white male, something safe, and McCain will be the next Pres.

Or is this just boring waffle from an ill-informed anitpodean who's already lost twenty bucks backing a dufus called 'Rudy'. History will decide.

And of course while I lost 20 bucks I can take heart that, as I understand it, Rudy Dufus lost $US16 mill.

Juxtapositions

One of my hobbies is spotting retail outlets which have two unrelated and odd product lines. I remember well the central Wellington retail outlet for native American artefacts which was also a computer ink cartridge shop. In New Brighton in Christchurch there is a TV repair and gardening outlet. I have seen others, a fish and chip shop that sold sewing supplies is the one that comes to mind.

I'm thinking about these juxtapositions as I am watching the second series of Blackadder, (potato - the episode where Blackadder hires Capt Redbeard Rum to take them on voyage to discover new lands with the hope of marrying QE1 if he makes it round the Cape of Good Hope) as I read the results of the US Democratic primary in South Carolina. Obama has trounced Hillary Clinton and the pundits are blaming Bill and his aggression and noting that Obama has carried 49 % of the youth vote in the Democrat turnout, 24 % of the white vote and a good proportion of white males as well.

Blackadder and the US election system are both farce.

• The US election goes for a year before the election and in the event the popular vote is an irrelevence in the contests to elect delegates to the electoral college who actually make the decision. As seems evident, Al Gore beat GW Bush last time, based on gerrymandering, democratic voters being thrown off the role by Jeb Bush in Florida, and voting machines which didn't work.


• Blackadder is a parody which makes interesting observations about history, actors, elections, kings......


• Barack Obama and Blackadder look very similar according to my small TV and little computer. BarackAddmada


• They're both entertaining to watch.

The lingering smell - the next social jihad

Since smokers were declared evil and while science cracks down on anyone who eats a cheeseburger or drinks espressos, I think the true anti-social issue behind smoking, and the other allied social disease facing modern life-styles are still not understood.

If you've gone to a house where the inhabitants smoke inside, or driven in their smokey car you'll know what I mean. It's the lingering smell of stale smoke: stomach turning and just plain awful. I bought a car which was perfumed by those toxic pink crystals, but found the true horror they hid a fortnight later when I moved the seat back and it lifted the carpet slightly. It took months to get rid of the odour.

When the jihad is won against smokers rather than cracking down on java consumers and chip eaters, the next crusade must be targeted at the other major anti-social fragrance horror: Dog owners. Like smokers, their houses and their cars stink in a way that makes one want to retch. If you're a dog owner it's an identity mark equivalent to being a smoker. The social sites should add nd (no dogs) to their ns (non smoker) categories. Also Trade Me should encourage those that say their goods are from a non-smoking home to add 'household free from canine vermin'.

One poor colleague of mine lent her car to some dog owners who took their cur for a trip in it. A year later the stench still dominates the Beemer and she is forced to make apologies to non smokers and non dog-owners that are imprisoned in it with her.

Yeah (since you're probably asking) I am a cat lover - but unless she leaves a hair on my jacket you'd never know - if you own a mutt I'll know if I'm within 2 metres of you!

And another thing, what is with the psychology of people who want pets that will stand in the kitchen panting until they've starved to death if you don't feed them? It's sick. Cats will go and find their own food.

There needs to be some serious psychological work done on people who want animals who are totally dependent on them and who, at the same time, make them stink like medievil peasants.

NZ blood lust = summer madness

There's something in the air this summer. And I don't mean that there is a summer, with heat and everything, which I do admit is odd, no it's the way that kiwis have taken to killing each other in large numbers this year. Everyday it seems there are two news murders.

Clearly the heat has got to people. 'Way hey hey - it's hot! Where's my machete?' Unable to cope with warm weather a fever has got to us.

Another theory I heard (on Radio NZ) proposed was that research into youths (young blokes) who play violent xbox, playstation and other games shows that they do in turn become more violent. That is for every problem the solution becomes to waste someone. It makes sense to me but no-one in authority seems to be taking it seriously.

SO back to the real problem - it's too hot. Will the goverment make fans compulsory in buildings and require businesses to buy fans? Such a regulatory approach is far more likely than banning violent games so we may have a chance here.

False economies 2

No I'm not talking about the viability of the NZ economy or whether economies like Naaru and Fiji are really just aid organisations, no it's where you try and save money by buying something cheaper and in reality it costs more. My last post on this looked at wrapping paper and incense.

Coffee. Is cheap coffee really worth it? If you're going to buy beans or grounds or a flat white or espresso does maying 50 cents or a dollar less for crap really make sense?
Same with tea. If you're buying tea for a refreshing complex flavour full of anti-oxidants and a warming comforting taste why would you buy cheap teabags made out of floor sweepings????

The answer, I think, must be that people like crap. They have no idea what a good cup of coffee or tea tastes like and could just as easily be drinking muddy water, with three sugars.

Grumpy, grumpy, grumpy.....

Pineapple lumps

Pineapple lumps are in the news again here after they featured in the Police Concert in Chch when Fregie from the Black-eyed Peas through a bag into the audience...

It brings us back to the question - are fresh Pineapple Lumps crunchy or chewy?

NZ investment tips

CONFIDENTIAL MEMO on investment options for New Zealanders - dated 2005

I have obtained what seems to be a confidential memo from three years ago, outlining suggestions for places kiwis could invest their money. The key message - outlining other places than property to invest in.

The memo provides options for New Zealanders to replace our 'love affair with property'. I'm not sure of the origin and who 'the Guv' is or who it was meant for, but it is good to know someone is looking out for the small Kiwi investor!

It starts with "As the Governor [maybe of a private school?] it is my role to ensure New Zealanders invest in assets other than housing particularly 'other productive' investments. There are many better options than wasting money buying houses, and the Goverment does not need to introduce taxes on second homes.

1. Shares.
I am of the opinion that shares, particularly such solid companies as Feltex Ltd are a good safe option and safer than houses for NZ ma and pa investors. Feltex in particular, as an example, is poised for a spectactular year in 2006.

2. Shares again.
Growth in the share market will continue till 2010 with no significant sustained drops caused by things like weakness in the US economy. Certainly no loses for more than ten NZX trading sessions in a row can occur. Shares are much safer than houses for the Kiwi investor.

3. Kiwi saver.
There is absolutely no way that the value of Kiwi Saver investments will decline. This investment is safer than houses and will not lose anything like 3 or 4 per cent of its value at any time.

4. Finance companies
New Zealand has many active and sound finance companies that are doing great things for small investors. National Finance, Bridgecorp, Western Bay, Geneva Finance, Nathans Finance, Clegg and Co, Provincial Finance, Numeria Finance, LDC Finance, Five Star Consumer Finance, and in particular TV news sponsors Capital and Merchant Finance are all excellent investment opportunities that benefit investors and the economy. Investing in these companies is much safer than houses.

5. Start up businesses.
While in the past 50 years the rate of failure of small businesses has been very very high in NZ, around 40 per cent, and very few companies move from being small to medium or large, this will change in 2006 and nearly all small businesses will survive and grow - despite our squeezing of the economy - and this will make investments much safer than houses for all New Zealanders.

6. Fiji.
Investing in Fijian businesses will help their economy and ours and investments there are safer than houses. Commodore Bainimarana will in no way allow any sort of moves that will threaten foreign investment.

7. 2007 World Cup memorablia.
The only collectables worth looking will be the Rugby World Cup. It is clear even if NZ lose the final of the World Cup that their successful campaign will ensure memorabilia will be at a premium, and All Black signed goods will be in demand internationally. This will be safer than houses as an investment.

8. Central city businesses in Christchurch.
Thanks to the excellent work of Mayor Garry Moore Christchurch city centre businesses will be thriving by 2007 and rents in the centre will overtake all the malls including Riccarton Mall. A safer than houses investment.

Bugger knocked off

Listened to the radio this am. Edmund Hillary is still dead.

There's been media stories that no-one in the royal family will be coming out. I meant coming to New Zealand but that statement holds as well. I suspect they're either scared of terrorists or they're doing their bit for the Kiwi republic. There was a poll some years ago about who we'd elect for president, if we had one, and Sir Ed won hands down. I had thought, at the time, it would be a bad precedent... when I was overseas I noted that leaders who had their pictures on the currency were usually up to no good (Sir Ed is, of course, on our $5 note). Or maybe the issue is that the Royal Family can't be buggered (I meant bothered, but see above double entendre).

According the radio news the big story was that there will be a video screen in Cathedral Square and in Dunedin you can watch the funeral from the Town Hall!!!! Around then I turned my car radio off and put on Chicane's latest album.

Still as he climbs the stairway to Valhalla Sir Ed will be missed. Not by me. I never met him and I can't understand this obsession with climbing mountains. Okay a great New Zealander, and I'd rather he was still alive.

Anyway the new Chicane cd/album/download... worth getting!

Taking a break

This blog will be on hold for a while. Not that anyone other than me is reading this.

Q: So Tim why do you like talking to yourself?
Me: Who said that? Show yourself!
Q: Never mind.


Posting back here in 2008 - post-treatment.

I believe 911 was a plot led by Al Queda and not George Bush.

There I said it - I'm clearly an idiot. Well according to a sales pitch on NZ's own Trade Me website.

I saw this post on the Trade Me the other day about this thing being a great deal "and if you don't believe that you'll be one of those idiots who think that George Bush had nothing to do with 9/11". Well actually I don't believe either of them. Which puts me in 'camp naive' according to another post I saw on a blog 6 months ago.

The growth in consipiracy thinking and the rejection of science and rationality is, in my opinion, one of the great issues we face. 'How do we know what is true' is an issue which has always had considerable debate and intellectual enquiry, but it seems post-modern 'perception is reality' has overturned the enlightenment. With the enlightenment and the growth in scientific (observable and verifiable) approach there was a major leap forward in getting an agreed basis for action.

I spose the irony is while we're debating how to deal with fundamentatist views in the Islamic world where science is outright rejected, our western conspiracists are agnostics or atheists. That is when if comes to science, that is they might believe science exists but don't believe anything it says, or if atheists they've heard of science but don't believe in it.

On professional arts in New Zealand

I have this growing sense that art in New Zealand shouldn't be professional. Kiwis are better at being generalists and professional rugby seems to have worked much better for the Australians and English than for us. Professional art also seems a way for some people to shut out others from participating.

One pro theatre has recently suggested that 'only professionally trained' actors should be on their stage. How does that get defined? Many of the grads from the drama schools are crap with no stage craft. Is acting like accountancy and requires standardised training?

The real reason for this entry criteria is trying to determine who's good and who's not. Not all the paid people are good and not all the unpaid are worse than the paid ones (look at Shortland Street!). Being trained or being paid are not the best determinates of good art. There are many famous painters who never made a living at it when they were alive, our greatest actors weren't trained.

More seriously though it's the money thing. Most NZ actors, painters, writers are on some form of government subsidy, New Zealand On Air, Creative NZ or creative communities, the unemployment benefit, or another grant which directly or indirectly goes into their pockets.

These are the very people trying to shunt out others from getting into here or there.
Maybe we should just accept that 98 per cent of NZ creative arts people are going to need some other form of income? What's wrong with that? If you are self supporting - that's fab. But if you're not - what did you expect from a country of 4 million people that worship rugby?

The latest insult was NZ actors voting to join Australian equity. This is likely to keep out many young actors from getting into productions based on their merit. Writers have tried similar moves.

Salman Rushdie in his book on Nicaragua noted that all Nicaraguans are poets. It doesn't mean that they all earn a full time wage writing poetry, but that many Nicaraguans write poetry.

Perhaps New Zealand could be a nation of artists and writers. Some earning money at it, most not. Where the market determines who is good, not those who have got to the top pulling up the ladder, by inventing more rigorous standards, or training requirements for everyone else.

I'm of the opinion that the govt should fund venues not wages for theatre. Let the audiences and private sponsorship pay the wages but let government funding allow opportunities for talent to bloom.

False economies

I've recently become aware of two false economies that strike at the heart of our way of life.

1 Wrapping paper. Cheap wrapping paper is a disaster and rips as you wrap. Not only that but it's immediately obvious as soon as you see a present wrapped in the stuff that it's cheap. Wrapping paper orginated as the industrial revolution started and mass produced goods started to replace home made ones. The orginal wrapping paper was decorated with designs by the giver to add some sort of personal contribution to the gift. Over time this too became mass produced and now very very tacky. It's all down hill from here....

2 Incense. There was a time incense sticks from Asia were relatively more expensive, hard to get and high quality. As demand has increased and large factories have taken over we now have incense which is fragrancy and worker pay 'lite'. Cheap incense smells cheap, doesn't linger and burns quicker. Originally of course incense was used to hide smells and to worship gods. We still have the smells but not the beliefs to go with them. So we're not just going down hill but to hell as well.