Losing $20

I lost $20 today. It was one of those bets that if everyone is being sensible I should have won. In this case it was last year and I rashly bet that Rudolph Giuliani would finish in the final 2 in the Republican primaries for President of the US. Actually it was a safe bet had the dufus not insisted on leaving his campaigning till Florida. Never trust anyone called Rudy.

Now it looks like the top finisher on the Republican side will be McCain, with Mitt Romney or possibly Huckabee next and Rudy Dufus pulling out.

Meanwhile the Democrats have a very interesting race. I don't think Hillary Clinton is electable. She's supposed to overhaul everyone on Super Tuesday but Mad Bill has probably ensured an Obama victory. Bill behaved like a lunatic in South Carolina trying to turn the contest into a race issue, well so the journos say. Actually I prefer Obama and I think he has a better chance than Hillary C. She should drop the Linton and go Hillary C - makes her sound like a spice girl. And I think dropping references to Bill will help her campaign. She can be Hillary he can be Clinton.

Obama hasn't got the Bill and Hillary baggage and he is almost a Gen X. He's still a boomer but a late boomer (ho ho).
The problem is as a kiwi I have this compulsion to back the underdog and given Hillary C (see it works) and Obama are both frontrunners, I've found myself supporting John Edwards. Hasn't a hope, but if he'd been 10 years older he would have probably beaten Dukakis or one of the other Dem losers and stood for Pres against Bush Sen or W Bush Jun.

What interests me is that American voters want change so are supporting the 'change' candidates (Obama, Clinton, McCain). At some point after Super Tuesday - probably mid year - they're going to suddenly realise no matter what happens they're going to get change as GWB is out. And of course the final 2 candidates - McCain and Hillary C or Obama -will be change. At that point they're gonna get worried about lack of experience and vote for the white male, something safe, and McCain will be the next Pres.

Or is this just boring waffle from an ill-informed anitpodean who's already lost twenty bucks backing a dufus called 'Rudy'. History will decide.

And of course while I lost 20 bucks I can take heart that, as I understand it, Rudy Dufus lost $US16 mill.