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Fact versus fiction
15 June 2011
The IEA sets the record straight on energy-related misperceptions
Myth: We could end dependence on oil with electric vehicles within a few years.
Reality: Electric vehicles can play an increasingly important role over time, but even with rapid sales growth they will not save more than a few percent of worldwide oil use until after 2020.
Explanation: Countries around the world have set electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales targets that, when combined, amount to about 7 million sales per year by 2020. If this is achieved, it will result in over 20 million electric vehicles on the road by that year, taking into account all sales over the next nine years. While this would represent tremendous success for EVs and PHEVs, 20 million is only 2 percent of the expected one billion vehicles on the road in that year.Myth: Current government commitments to tackle global warming are enough to limit the global temperature increase to 2ºC.
Reality: Even if all announced commitments were fully implemented, they do not go nearly far enough.
Explanation: The Copenhagen Accord – with which all major emitting countries and many others associated themselves – sets a non-binding objective of limiting the increase in global temperature to 2ºC above pre-industrial levels. It also establishes a goal for the industrialised countries of mobilising funding for climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries of USD100 billion per year by 2020, and requires the industrialised countries to set emissions targets for the same year. The commitments that have been announced, even if they were to be fully implemented, would take us only part of the way towards an emissions trajectory that would allow us to achieve the 2ºC goal.Myth: Coal is an energy source of the nineteenth century and the world is close to getting rid of it.
Reality: Coal use has never stopped increasing and the forecasts indicate that, unless a dramatic policy action occurs, this trend will continue in the future.
Explanation: Coal is the second source of primary energy in the world (after oil), and the first source of electricity generation. For the past decade, coal has been the fastest-growing global energy source, meeting 47% of new electricity demand.Myth: China’s National Oil Companies act under the instructions and in close co-ordination with the Chinese government
Reality: They operate with a high degree of independence from the Chinese government.
Explanation: An assessment carried out by the IEA found that despite some instances of co-ordination with the Chinese government, National Oil Companies appear mainly to be driven by commercial incentives to take advantage of available opportunities in the global marketplace. This independent, commercially driven behaviour is particularly pronounced in upstream investments and operations. Their investments have, for the most part, helped to increase global supplies of oil and gas via the same international market that other importers rely on.Myth: A concentration and lack of lithium supply will prevent mass commercialisation of electric vehicles.
Reality: There is a sufficient reserve base of lithium for widespread electric vehicle deployment at least through to 2030, probably much longer, even with rapid growth in sales.Explanation: Though lithium (a metal which is a crucial element of batteries for electric vehicles) is mainly concentrated in a few countries in South America, there is more than enough supply for the next 20 years. Also, by around 2030 it is fair to assume that extraction of lithium will be much more efficient, and that batteries may very well not run on lithium by that time.
Photo: Cooling Towers. © GraphicObsession
17 June 2011
Untitled
16 June 2011
The earth moves.... change change change
Rather than have a daily blog devoted to going on about the earthquakes and recovery around it, I've deliberately kept my own counsel, (well apart from the odd posting and newspaper column in the NZHerald.)
I don't need to mention it's over 10,000 quakes and that the city is ... well destroyed. We know that. the suffering and issues faced by residents is amazing. Particularly in the near invisible east. The roads which have been repaired twice are now covered in bumps, breaks, have lost their tar seal and in many cases down to one lane.
From February I was keen to leave Christchurch. I realised the city I grew up in has gone. The economy is a mess. We've been planning a trip to Aussie with a view to seeing where we could move. I've been annoyed with some authorities, with a range of the issues and the ongoing shaking.
On Monday we had a rather vicious 5.5 (well 5.7 with earthquake inflation) that knocked everything over. Angry and annoyed I picked it all up got on with it. Later we had the 6.0 or 6.3 depending on what side of Colombo Street you're on.
It was when I was picking up everything for the second time (but with more breakages and damage) that something changed. I went from being angry to serene. Rather than having had enough I was riding the wave.
I'd describe my mood as Belligerent. No earthquake will make me leave. I won't let incompetence from any Council get me down. Bugger it.
A lot of people pay a lot of money to go on expeditions, live in tents in the cold, with no comforts, or embark on extreme sports. Camping is where you have very little and have to make do without your house and resources. Just like post-earthquake Christchurch.
I've got all that adventure in Christchurch for nothing (well for a lot actually but it's more loss of property value). It's like a long camping adventure.
And that changes everything.
10 June 2011
Paul Revere secret revealed by Sarah Palin
The reinterpretation of history by Sarah Palin, and her faithful followers who are attempting to change Wikipedia, has inadvertently shone light on a previously unknown revelation.
Paul Revere was an immortal who still walks this planet.
You can see clearly he is none other than the man we know as Jack Black.
I'd suggest Black be called in to explain exactly what he was doing that night and settle this once and for all.
17 March 2011
From the papers
Same observation here. Most of Chch will be deserted on Sunday and the roads will be clogged.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/4777224/Christchurch-is-grumpy
Yes it is too soon for a memorial and I wonder how many will go, my pick is not many - everyone here is saying this is for people outside the city.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10712982
We knew this would happen but what an insensitive headline.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10712989
Heartbreaking.
Finally great news!
12 March 2011
Hot pies for breakfast
From Herald on Sunday 6 March 2011
Confession time. I live in Avondale.
That is, on the banks of the Avon, next to Aranui, Avonside and over from Dallington. Yes, despite my metra-Kiwi language and references, I'm in Christchurch. I won't be offended if you have to read this slowly so it makes sense.
And it's time to talk of shoes and ships and sealing wax and cabbages, large quantities of mud, car wheels and suspicious-looking black bags that now bob in the Avon mud reservoir.
The Reservoir is what we used to refer to as the Wainoni Loop of the Avon River. I was here for this quake, bravely clinging to a table leg as the table bounced across a kitchen.
I knew immediately it was bigger than the last quake and that the damage would be severe. Of course, 60 per cent of Christchurch you can travel through and be unaware there was a devastating earthquake at all. The damage is in the east and is patchy around the rest of the city.
Friends tell me there is a long-standing suspicion in Auckland (when anyone bothers to think about it) that the resentment towards the City of Sails is simply because other places just want to be like Auckland.
We're a hardy lot down here - we have to be. Hardly any roads, no bridges, huge mud piles and banks of sand ... Driving down lumpy, broken roads at night, dust storms blowing wildly, I was cast back to 1992 when I served in Sri Lanka with Peace Brigades International. The main differences are Christchurch is considerably colder, and there are fewer bullet holes.
Otherwise, the comparison between the mud of the Garden City and a war zone are apt. I've spent a few days at Civil Defence headquarters and it is governed by a sense of military purpose and precision. The city council may have done bugger all over here after the first quake but they have risen to the challenge this time.
And while we don't have any portaloos in our part of Avondale or Avonside, we hear that there's at least one street in Beckenham where they have power and water and one portaloo per house - and we're grateful for them.
The challenge now is surviving. We've picked up some food tips, like the joys of a hot breakfast - choosing between service station pies or sausage rolls, and how to select the best accompanying flavour of potato chips. I can also give advice on cooking with a camp gas stove, the time and place to be a naked chef, the uses of melted ice cream and how to water down milkshakes without water.
I don't think it's all over for Christchurch - when the rebuilding happens we have options. For example, we can be the world's most advanced earthquake-proof single-layer city. Or the only Eastern European-themed concrete tilt slab city in the world.
Christchurch residents are proceeding with determination and grit. The grit is through our hair, clothes and houses, but we know one day it will wash out.
I personally knew at least three of those who have tragically died and it is sobering. What some families are going through I can't imagine.
Each night before I go to bed I wonder whether another quake will mean I won't wake up tomorrow. However, I know more people who survived - right now we've won the quake and it's all about surviving the rebuilding.
The messages of hope and support from all around New Zealand are very welcome.
11 March 2011
Japan
The Japanese quake this evening (our time) is particularly raw for us.
The Japanese Search and Rescue team leaves here tomorrow and they have done superb work in Christchurch following our 6.3 quake. Now they have an 8.8 and a tsunami of devastating proportions at home to address.
Sadly many of the dead and injured here were Japanese.
I can only hope their rescue efforts go as well as can possibly be expected.
We built this city on rock n roll.
I did wonder about writing about the earthquake (sorry, ‘aftershock’) in Christchurch again, after all there is such a thing as having too much of a bad thing. My thought was yes and no. ‘Yes’ I could write about it and ‘no’ I didn’t have any other ideas.
First though the term aftershock, there has been a lot of confusion around this. An aftershock is when the ground moves suddenly and can crack and destroy houses and kill people, while an earthquake has quite different insurance liabilities.
The term ‘safe as houses’ is mocking as the idea of terra firma and things we can rely on have vanished.
And in the new environment strange surreal things have happened. I’ve spent my life avoiding discussion of body functions and would have even recently been voted least likely to have 400 toilets in my garage. Rangiora Earthquake Express; a fantastic volunteer group, have changed all that and made 6,000 chemical toilets to give away. I’m hoping at the next election I can vote them in to replace the local Councils. They make sure things get done, literally.
More importantly every person you meet wants to talk and you swap stories and experiences. People know their neighbours.
The question for Christchurch is what does the future hold?
The issue is certainty in an increasingly uncertain world. Seismologists can’t tell us when there’ll be more shakes or their size. My cat can at least give an hours’ notice. Science knows more about missile guidance systems than earthquakes.
To moon someone is to bare your naked bottom at them, and metaphorically that is exactly what Moon Man John Ring is doing to sell his almanacs. He may turn Christchurch into a deserted ghost town on 20 March and I’ll eat my liquifaction if he’s right, but residents aren’t taking any chances.
It’s so bad that newspaper astrologers could have a resurgence in trustworthiness surveys.
Current debate is what the future holds. Part of Christchurch has gone forever though this isn’t new. Among many architectural ‘fails’, Kiddey’s Toy Shop in the central city, a single level wooden trove, was destroyed for an eight storey faux mirror glass building in the 1980s that was a mere outhouse in Dallas terms and with all the soul of JR Ewing.
Much of the city has been run down for years, usually by media reports only covering crime. The rebuild is still on many drawing boards.
Much of the city has had tired empty old buildings for a long time, and a variety of competing styles. Seismologists could consider swapping disciplines, they might be able to more accurately predict what new Christchurch will look like.
The reality is things have changed. Any rebuild, mothballed suburbs, whatever size and timing, there will very likely be earthquakes in future. The thing is though people have come together. Messages of support are still coming through and Christchurch is full of volunteers from up and down New Zealand. We know now what the ground can do and in the ring of fire we know that whatever happens, New Zealand rocks.
This is the second piece I wrote following the 22 Feb 6.3 quake that hit Christchurch. Since i didn't have power for 10 days it took a long time to get anything down at all.
27 February 2011
Malls
Lots of things
31 December 2010
New Year's revelations 2011
I used to try new years resolutions and even had long lists of them.
This year I wanted to do New year's Revolutions instead but seizing control of the winter palace seemed a bit out of reach, (but probably more likely than resolving and then succeeding not having any chocolate this year).
Instead I am opting for revelations.
These are the sort of revelations we humans have that go something like:
"oh you've had a hair cut"
"is that your car?"
'Oh did failing off that balcony hurt?"
"it's raining."
"that'll be the phone" etc....
But heaps more profound
1 Annual Resolutions are inhuman.
There is clearly something wrong with resolutions as we can't keep them. With the best of intent we start out committed to adopting and following goals we set ourselves and within 2 weeks it's like they never happened. My hypothesis is we're not hardwired to keep resolutions, but we are hardwired to delude ourselves with no memory of previous years failures.
2 Accepting that resolutions are meaningless we should go for the doctor when we make them
NB I wondered if I could work the expression 'go for the doctor' (meaning go for the maximum we can get) into conversation so this can be it.
If it's clear we can't keep resolutions, but it's accepted we make them, we shouldn't limit ourselves to ones that are possible.
I'd suggest if you want to make NY resolutions go for:
- I resolve to be 10 cm taller this year
- By 12 February i will have absolutely no body hair and will grow a seal -like wet suit instead
- I will win lotto first division every week for 6 months
- I resolve to bring peace to lebanon and broker an agreement on whether their breads should be thin for wrapping round things or big fat onces you can cut in half
- I will ensure all episodes of Ben 10 and that Jenna Elfman comedy are destroyed forever
Dream large.
3 People will forget you made resolutions
This is a blank cheque to impress people later in the year.
"Oh yes I resolved to not buy any new trousers till 11 March and see I achieved it!"
"I'm very proud as at new year I said I wouldn't steal anything unless it was a (insert description of item your stole here)"
There's a lot to be said for resolutions made in hindsight.
4 Bad stuff will happen - it's not your fault
Despite having huge respect for Gandhi, Mother Theresa, Jeremy Clarkson and Nelson Mandela the idea we can all change the world is deluded. The idea that each one of us is a powerful God-like agent of change is twisted. So bad stuff will happen. We can have our own peace-making, recycling cottage-domination movement but the world changing stuff only works if you define the world in terms of a small number of observer (usually no more than 3).
So this year do what you can. But don't sweat the rest.
5 The world won't end this year. Probably.
I'm no expert (on anything at all actually) but there have been doomsday and end-times prophets since ... they first appeared. One day they'll be right and the world will end. Mostly though they've been wrong. Yes: the north (and south) Koreans are behaving like 4 year olds; yes Muslim, Jewish, and Christian militant fundamentalists are all insane (oh sorry except the Muslim ones); yes the climate is in a really really bad way with global warming; and yes we will probably lose the Rugby World Cup BUT we will probably get through another year.
6 Life happens.
I used to have an album by the Ozark Mountain Daredevils, folk rock bluegrass hillbillies, who had a song called 'It'll shine when it shines". they were right. Sometimes it shines and sometimes it doesn't.
This year it's best just to take advantage of it.
26 November 2010
stupidness and realistic expectations
The poor woman - why do we expect beauty contestants to know anything beyond how to dress themselves and buy diet pills?
We don't expect diplomats to walk down a catwalk practically naked in high heels.
Venezuela's former Miss Universe Alicia Machado closed her Twitter account after being mocked for confusing the Koreas with China.
Concerned by North Korea's artillery attack on a South Korean island, the 1996 beauty queen winner got muddled when tweeting for world peace via her @aliciamachado77 account.
"Tonight I want to ask you to join me in a prayer for peace, that these attacks between the Chinas do not make our situation worse," she wrote late on Tuesday.
Her gaffe unleashed a rush of insulting posts, prompting her to go offline. "I now have a lot of psychopaths on the account and it's best I start another one, kisses," she signed off, according to Venezuelan media.
Machado is no stranger to unwelcome attention.
She caused a media furor by gaining 10 kilograms right after her 1996 triumph and Miss Universe organisation president Donald Trump called her an "eating machine."
http://www.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/celebrities/4389824/No-peace-in-Miss-Uni...
