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Fact versus fiction
15 June 2011
The IEA sets the record straight on energy-related misperceptions
Myth: We could end dependence on oil with electric vehicles within a few years.
Reality: Electric vehicles can play an increasingly important role over time, but even with rapid sales growth they will not save more than a few percent of worldwide oil use until after 2020.
Explanation: Countries around the world have set electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales targets that, when combined, amount to about 7 million sales per year by 2020. If this is achieved, it will result in over 20 million electric vehicles on the road by that year, taking into account all sales over the next nine years. While this would represent tremendous success for EVs and PHEVs, 20 million is only 2 percent of the expected one billion vehicles on the road in that year.Myth: Current government commitments to tackle global warming are enough to limit the global temperature increase to 2ºC.
Reality: Even if all announced commitments were fully implemented, they do not go nearly far enough.
Explanation: The Copenhagen Accord – with which all major emitting countries and many others associated themselves – sets a non-binding objective of limiting the increase in global temperature to 2ºC above pre-industrial levels. It also establishes a goal for the industrialised countries of mobilising funding for climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries of USD100 billion per year by 2020, and requires the industrialised countries to set emissions targets for the same year. The commitments that have been announced, even if they were to be fully implemented, would take us only part of the way towards an emissions trajectory that would allow us to achieve the 2ºC goal.Myth: Coal is an energy source of the nineteenth century and the world is close to getting rid of it.
Reality: Coal use has never stopped increasing and the forecasts indicate that, unless a dramatic policy action occurs, this trend will continue in the future.
Explanation: Coal is the second source of primary energy in the world (after oil), and the first source of electricity generation. For the past decade, coal has been the fastest-growing global energy source, meeting 47% of new electricity demand.Myth: China’s National Oil Companies act under the instructions and in close co-ordination with the Chinese government
Reality: They operate with a high degree of independence from the Chinese government.
Explanation: An assessment carried out by the IEA found that despite some instances of co-ordination with the Chinese government, National Oil Companies appear mainly to be driven by commercial incentives to take advantage of available opportunities in the global marketplace. This independent, commercially driven behaviour is particularly pronounced in upstream investments and operations. Their investments have, for the most part, helped to increase global supplies of oil and gas via the same international market that other importers rely on.Myth: A concentration and lack of lithium supply will prevent mass commercialisation of electric vehicles.
Reality: There is a sufficient reserve base of lithium for widespread electric vehicle deployment at least through to 2030, probably much longer, even with rapid growth in sales.Explanation: Though lithium (a metal which is a crucial element of batteries for electric vehicles) is mainly concentrated in a few countries in South America, there is more than enough supply for the next 20 years. Also, by around 2030 it is fair to assume that extraction of lithium will be much more efficient, and that batteries may very well not run on lithium by that time.
Photo: Cooling Towers. © GraphicObsession
17 June 2011
Untitled
16 June 2011
The earth moves.... change change change
Rather than have a daily blog devoted to going on about the earthquakes and recovery around it, I've deliberately kept my own counsel, (well apart from the odd posting and newspaper column in the NZHerald.)
I don't need to mention it's over 10,000 quakes and that the city is ... well destroyed. We know that. the suffering and issues faced by residents is amazing. Particularly in the near invisible east. The roads which have been repaired twice are now covered in bumps, breaks, have lost their tar seal and in many cases down to one lane.
From February I was keen to leave Christchurch. I realised the city I grew up in has gone. The economy is a mess. We've been planning a trip to Aussie with a view to seeing where we could move. I've been annoyed with some authorities, with a range of the issues and the ongoing shaking.
On Monday we had a rather vicious 5.5 (well 5.7 with earthquake inflation) that knocked everything over. Angry and annoyed I picked it all up got on with it. Later we had the 6.0 or 6.3 depending on what side of Colombo Street you're on.
It was when I was picking up everything for the second time (but with more breakages and damage) that something changed. I went from being angry to serene. Rather than having had enough I was riding the wave.
I'd describe my mood as Belligerent. No earthquake will make me leave. I won't let incompetence from any Council get me down. Bugger it.
A lot of people pay a lot of money to go on expeditions, live in tents in the cold, with no comforts, or embark on extreme sports. Camping is where you have very little and have to make do without your house and resources. Just like post-earthquake Christchurch.
I've got all that adventure in Christchurch for nothing (well for a lot actually but it's more loss of property value). It's like a long camping adventure.
And that changes everything.
10 June 2011
Paul Revere secret revealed by Sarah Palin
The reinterpretation of history by Sarah Palin, and her faithful followers who are attempting to change Wikipedia, has inadvertently shone light on a previously unknown revelation.
Paul Revere was an immortal who still walks this planet.
You can see clearly he is none other than the man we know as Jack Black.
I'd suggest Black be called in to explain exactly what he was doing that night and settle this once and for all.
